日月股份：盈利能力触底，有望迎来业绩拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company has been a leader in the casting industry for 30 years, focusing on the production, research, and sales of large industrial equipment castings. The company has seen rapid growth in revenue and profit since 2019, primarily benefiting from the wind power industry and stable raw material prices. However, since 2021, the competitive landscape has worsened due to the end of wind power project rush and price reductions [2][29] - The casting industry has experienced significant capacity expansion in 2023, leading to a rapid decline in prices. The report anticipates a tight supply of large castings and a potential for price increases in early 2025, as demand for large wind turbine models is expected to rise significantly [3][44] - The company is projected to see a recovery in profitability, with an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024 to 661 million yuan and for 2025-2026 to 825 million and 935 million yuan, respectively. This reflects a year-on-year growth of 37%, 25%, and 13% for the respective years [8][46] Summary by Sections Industry Competition and Revenue Growth - The company reported revenue of 3.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 510 million yuan, an increase of 43.5%. The gross margin was 17.2%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [1][16] Large Casting Processing Capacity - The report highlights a shortage of large casting processing capacity, with expectations for price increases in early 2025 due to tight supply conditions. The penetration rate of large wind turbine models is projected to rise from 15% in 2024 to 35% in 2025 [3][44] Cost Control and Expense Rate - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a significant reduction in expense ratios. For the first three quarters of 2024, operating expenses were 260 million yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, with an expense ratio of 8.1% [32][45]