青岛啤酒：新董事长接棒，凝心聚力再启航

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The internal promotion of General Jiang as the new chairman is expected to maintain strategic continuity for the company. The company is anticipated to benefit from restaurant recovery and enhanced management, providing strong elasticity in the mid-term. The company is viewed as a high-quality stock with both offensive and defensive capabilities, focusing on resilience and improved dividend yield as key strategies [3][19] - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected to be 319.77 billion, 330.06 billion, and 339.75 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 44.56 billion, 50.28 billion, and 55.38 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are 23.9, 21.2, and 19.3 times [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue was 33,937 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31,977 million, 33,006 million, and 33,975 million yuan, with expected year-on-year changes of -5.8%, 3.2%, and 2.9% respectively [4] - The net profit for 2023 was 4,268 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.0%. The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4,456 million, 5,028 million, and 5,538 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 4.4%, 12.8%, and 10.1% respectively [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 38.7% in 2023 to 43.5% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.5% to 16.7% over the same period [4] Market Position and Strategy - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's sales decreased by 6.98% year-on-year, underperforming the overall beer industry, which saw a decline of 1.5%. This was attributed to weak sales dynamics and a conservative marketing approach due to delayed management transitions [5] - The company is positioned as a high-quality leader in the Chinese beer market, with a focus on resilience and capital expenditure discipline. The expectation of significant dividend yield increases in the future is highlighted as a key defensive strategy [6][19]