CJS(600176) 东吴证券·2024-12-29 23:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][19]. Core Insights - The industry is currently at a low profitability level, with many second and third-tier companies facing losses, which will continue to restrict capacity expansion. However, growth in downstream sectors such as wind power and thermoplastics is expected to improve the industry's supply-demand balance, supporting a recovery in industry conditions [2]. - The company is leveraging its cost advantages and international capacity to enhance product differentiation and high-end positioning, which is anticipated to solidify its competitive edge and improve long-term profitability stability. The company's price-to-book ratio remains at historical lows, and major shareholders are increasing their stakes, reflecting confidence in the company's future [2]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated to be 22.2 billion, 29.9 billion, and 39.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 21, 15, and 12 times [2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The report highlights that the industry is still in a bottom phase of profitability, with second and third-tier companies generally incurring losses, which will continue to limit capacity expansion. The growth in downstream sectors like wind power and thermoplastics is expected to enhance the industry's supply-demand balance, leading to a sustained improvement in industry conditions [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from its production cost advantages and international capacity, further strengthening its product differentiation and high-end market positioning, which is likely to enhance its competitive advantage and long-term profitability stability [2]. - The company's price-to-book ratio is currently at historical lows, and the increase in major shareholders' stakes indicates confidence in the company's future. The anticipated improvements in dividends and profit expectations are expected to drive valuation recovery [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 22.2 billion, 29.9 billion, and 39.8 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with previous estimates being 22.2 billion, 27.9 billion, and 36.2 billion yuan [2]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 21, 15, and 12 times [2].