JH Group(603518) 浙商证券·2024-12-30 00:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - TeenieWeenie, as a mid-to-high-end collegiate casual wear brand, is expected to drive profitability beyond expectations through multiple initiatives, including enhancing offline efficiency and leveraging IP licensing business growth [5][17] - The company is anticipated to return to a positive growth trajectory in 2025, supported by ongoing adjustments in its offline store structure and the expansion of flagship stores [5][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecast - Projected revenue for 2023 is 4,544.93 million, with a growth of 16.55%. For 2024, a decline of 3.06% is expected, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 6.32% in 2025 and 5.41% in 2026 [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 298 million in 2023, with a significant increase of 316.76%. A slight decline of 5.79% is expected in 2024, followed by growth of 15.66% in 2025 and 12.45% in 2026 [8][11] Operational Strategy - The company has been actively closing inefficient stores and transitioning from direct operation to franchising, resulting in a net reduction of 104 direct stores in the first three quarters of 2024 [17] - New store formats, including flagship and concept stores, are being introduced in key urban areas to enhance customer traffic and retail performance [17] IP Licensing Business - The IP licensing business, established in 2020, has shown remarkable growth with a CAGR of 112% from 2021 to 2023, and revenue in the first half of 2024 reached 14.07 million, up 118% year-on-year [17] - This segment is expected to become a new growth point for the TeenieWeenie brand, catering to diverse lifestyle needs of younger consumers [17] Valuation Analysis - The current market capitalization is 3.5 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 12.3 for 2024, 10.7 for 2025, and 9.5 for 2026. A target PE of 14X for 2025 suggests a potential market cap of 4.5 billion, indicating an upside of 30% from the current valuation [17]