百亚股份：舆情影响趋弱，短期影响业绩，长期重塑格局

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company's short-term performance is affected by public opinion, but the impact is gradually weakening, with daily sales steadily improving and returning to high growth [5] - The company's long-term growth logic remains unchanged, with strong brand operation capabilities and steady progress in nationalization of offline channels [5] - Online platforms such as Tmall and JD are gradually forming a repurchase cycle, and the impact of public opinion is expected to be significantly smaller compared to Douyin [5] - The company's product structure continues to upgrade, with the proportion of probiotics in the core five provinces rapidly increasing [5] - The company's team execution and cohesion are excellent, and the underlying capabilities are expected to remain unaffected by public opinion, with a return to high growth anticipated [5] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue is expected to grow from 1,612 million in 2022 to 5,066 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 33.0% from 2023 to 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 187 million in 2022 to 513 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 27.2% from 2023 to 2026 [7] - Gross margin is expected to increase from 45.1% in 2022 to 56.8% in 2026 [7] - ROE is expected to increase from 14.6% in 2022 to 36.8% in 2026 [7] - EPS (diluted) is expected to grow from 0.44 yuan in 2022 to 1.19 yuan in 2026 [7] Competitive Analysis - The company's competitors, such as Taotaoyangmian and Naisi Princess, have also seen significant growth in GMV on Douyin, with Taotaoyangmian's GMV increasing by 168% YoY and Naisi Princess's GMV increasing by 541% YoY [5] - The company's brand, Free Point, has pioneered a new approach in the content e-commerce era, leveraging Douyin to drive sales and then transferring to Tmall and JD for repurchase, setting a benchmark for new fast-moving consumer goods brands [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.0 billion, 3.9 billion, and 5.1 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33.4X, 25.6X, and 19.7X [5] - The company's offline channel expansion in peripheral provinces is maintaining high growth rates, and the online repurchase cycle on Tmall and JD is gradually forming [5] - The company's product structure is continuously upgrading, with the proportion of probiotics in the core five provinces rapidly increasing [5]