Richful(300910) 中原证券·2024-12-30 07:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its growth potential in the global lubricant additive market and its efforts in domestic substitution [20][26] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic lubricant additive producer with significant technological and production capacity advantages [29] - The global lubricant additive market exceeds 100 billion yuan, with China being the second-largest market, offering vast opportunities for domestic substitution [25][29] - The company is actively advancing API certification and transitioning towards compound additives, which are expected to drive future growth [16][30] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 46.67 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 4.35x and a circulating market cap of 9.547 billion yuan [2][5][6] - The stock's 52-week high and low are 51.00 yuan and 35.25 yuan, respectively [3] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin is 36.08%, with a diluted return on equity of 15.96% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 21.21% [10][11][12] - The company's operating cash flow per share is 0.88 yuan, and its net asset per share is 10.74 yuan [8][9] Product and Capacity - The company has a comprehensive product line covering mainstream lubricant additive varieties, including detergents, dispersants, ZDDP, and high-temperature antioxidants [17] - The company's current single-agent production capacity exceeds 200,000 tons/year, with an additional 550,000 tons/year under construction [18] - By the end of 2025, the company's production capacity in its Xinxiang base is expected to exceed 700,000 tons/year [18] Industry Overview - The global lubricant additive market is projected to reach 19.5 billion USD by 2023, with China accounting for 16.6% of the market [25] - The top four international lubricant additive companies control approximately 85% of the global market share, creating opportunities for domestic substitution [25][29] API Certification and Technological Advancements - The company has passed API certification for its CI-4, CK-4, SN, and SP grade compound additives, demonstrating its strong technical capabilities [30] - The company has completed the development of lubricant additive products that meet the latest ILSAC GF-7 specifications, further enhancing its product portfolio [127] Future Growth and Profitability - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.299 billion yuan, 3.867 billion yuan, and 4.432 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [26][35] - Net profits attributable to the parent company are projected to be 707 million yuan, 833 million yuan, and 1.021 billion yuan for the same periods [26][35]