Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 12.03 per share, based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025 [2][177] Core Views - The company's business is recovering from the bottom, with significant future growth potential. The issuance of stock options and high market capitalization targets demonstrate management's confidence [2] - The company has no direct comparable listed companies in Hong Kong. Historical valuations during high-growth periods (2020-2021) reached over 30x PE [2] - The company's reasonable value is estimated at HKD 12.03 per share based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025 [2] Market Overview - The global and US e-cigarette markets remain stable, with e-cigarettes accounting for approximately 7.8% of the US tobacco market. The US e-cigarette market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% from 2022 to 2031 [193] - The US disposable e-cigarette market share increased from 25% in 2020 to 52% in 2022, with non-tobacco and non-menthol flavors accounting for 80% of disposable e-cigarettes [194] - As of March 2024, only 34 FDA-authorized products accounted for 13.7% of total US retail store sales [195] Company Performance - The company's total share capital and market capitalization are 6,179.67 million shares and HKD 69,583 million, respectively [3] - The stock price has fluctuated between HKD 4.73 and HKD 15.18 over the past year, with a 30-day average trading volume of 11.66 million shares and turnover of HKD 128.81 million [3] - The stock price has declined by 12.71% over the past three months but increased by 27.51% over the past six months [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to grant 61 million stock options to the chairman at an exercise price of HKD 11.26, with market capitalization targets of HKD 300 billion, HKD 400 billion, and HKD 500 billion by 2025-2030 [2] - The company also plans to grant stock options or awards to core employees [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 9.0%, 31.7%, and 28.9% in 2024-2026, with net profit growth of -18.0%, 44.9%, and 44.0% respectively [73] Industry Trends - The global HNB market continues to grow at a double-digit rate, with PMI, BAT, and Japan Tobacco accounting for 71.4%, 15.5%, and 4.3% of the global heated tobacco market share in 2022 [211] - PMI's heated tobacco unit sales increased by 13% YoY in Q1-Q3 2024, with strong growth in Europe and Japan [55] - BAT's new HNB product, glo Hilo, is expected to have significant growth potential with improved heating technology and taste experience [61]
思摩尔国际：政策催化底部回暖，技术引领二次成长