Beibu Gulf Port (000582) 天风证券·2024-12-30 08:42Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Beibu Gulf Port with a target price of 10.91 yuan [2][3] Core Views - Beibu Gulf Port is strategically located at the core of RCEP and ASEAN Free Trade Area, serving as the gateway for the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [1] - The port's cargo throughput is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 10% from 2014 to 2024, while container throughput is projected to grow at 23% annually, both exceeding national averages [1] - The Pinglu Canal, expected to be completed by the end of 2026, will significantly boost the port's throughput by providing the shortest sea route for Southwest China [1][72] - By 2035, the Pinglu Canal is expected to handle 95.5 million tons of cargo, contributing nearly 200 million tons of throughput to Beibu Gulf Port [1][72] Industry and Company Overview - Beibu Gulf Port is a state-owned enterprise under Guangxi's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, operating key port areas in Qinzhou, Fangcheng, and Beihai [24][42] - The port has a strong asset quality and has completed the integration of its core port areas, achieving a regional port integration ahead of other ports in China [42][46] - The port's ROE has remained above 7% from 2013 to 2023, outperforming the industry average in 2023 [11][44] Throughput Growth Drivers - Industrial relocation to Western China and increased trade with ASEAN are expected to drive higher GDP and export shares in Southwest China, benefiting Beibu Gulf Port [1][38] - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor is expected to increase the proportion of exports from Sichuan and Chongqing passing through Beibu Gulf Port [1][38] - The Pinglu Canal is projected to divert 50 million tons of cargo from the Pearl River Delta to Beibu Gulf Port by 2023, with further increases expected by 2027 [1][72] Profit and Valuation Forecast - The report forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.17, 1.18, 1.33, 2.05, and 2.99 billion yuan for 2024-2028, respectively [2][81] - The target price of 10.91 yuan is derived from a combination of AE valuation and comparable company PE multiples [2][81] Strategic Positioning and Future Plans - Beibu Gulf Port aims to become a world-class port by 2025, with a container throughput target of 10 million TEUs, and 20 million TEUs by 2035 [27] - The port plans to continue investing in and integrating high-quality port resources, with significant capital expenditures expected in the coming years [38][109]