STL(002648) 国信证券·2024-12-30 09:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][25] Core Views - The company is investing a total of 26.6 billion yuan in the construction of high-end new materials for α-olefin comprehensive utilization, with a production capacity that includes 1.7 million tons of high-end polyolefins, 600,000 tons of polyethylene elastomers, and 30,000 tons of polyα-olefins. The first phase of the project has commenced construction and is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with production starting in early 2026, leading to a gradual realization of profit increments [3][29] - The company has successfully launched the first phase of its 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project, achieving a closed-loop coupling of the C3 industrial chain, which will continuously reduce production costs [3][29] - The recent increase in acrylic acid prices, driven by maintenance shutdowns and low spot inventories, is expected to enhance the company's performance. As of December 27, the market price of acrylic acid was approximately 7,700 yuan per ton, up about 1,000 yuan per ton (+15.8%) from the previous month [9][11] - The reduction of the ethane import tariff from 2% to 1% is anticipated to lower the company's raw material costs by approximately 100 million yuan, maintaining its cost advantage [26][36] Financial Forecasts - The company maintains its forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 at 5.44 billion, 6.94 billion, and 8.17 billion yuan, respectively. Corresponding EPS is projected to be 1.61, 2.06, and 2.43 yuan, with PE ratios of 11.3, 8.8, and 7.5 times [5][25]