羚锐制药：改革成效明显，中药贴膏龙头阔步向前

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 25.94 RMB based on a 19x PE for 2025, corresponding to a market value of 147.1 billion RMB [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the traditional Chinese medicine patch market, with a significant focus on orthopedic products, which account for over 60% of its revenue. The orthopedic segment has shown a steady growth rate of approximately 13% CAGR from 2018 to 2023, driven by an aging population [1][80]. - The company has undergone two sales reforms since 2012, resulting in a significant reduction in sales expense ratio from 51.5% in 2018 to 44.4% by Q3 2024, and an increase in net profit margin from 12.0% to 20.8% during the same period [1][17]. - The company has consistently increased its dividend payout ratio, maintaining over 70% from 2021 to 2023, with a dividend yield of 4.68% in 2023, positioning it among the top in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [1][11]. Summary by Sections Main Business Stability - The company is recognized as a leader in the traditional Chinese medicine patch market, with well-known brands such as Tongluo Pain Relief Patch and the "Two Tigers" series. The orthopedic revenue has shown robust growth, with a revenue of 27.6 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.7 billion RMB, up 23% year-on-year [1][80]. Management Initiatives - The company has implemented two significant sales reforms, leading to a notable decrease in sales expenses and an improvement in profitability metrics. The net profit margin has increased significantly, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [1][17]. Potential Breakthroughs - The company announced plans to acquire 100% of Yingu Pharmaceutical for a valuation not exceeding 782.12 million RMB. This acquisition could enhance the company's product portfolio, particularly in nasal spray products, and strengthen its sales capabilities both in hospitals and retail [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in net profit, with projections of 6.65 billion RMB, 7.74 billion RMB, and 8.93 billion RMB for 2024 to 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 16%, and 15% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.17 RMB, 1.37 RMB, and 1.57 RMB for the same period [3][12].