GPED(000429) 广发证券·2024-12-31 03:50Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.89 CNY per share, indicating an expected upside from the current price of 13.98 CNY [41][251]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is shifting positively, which is expected to support a recovery in the company's performance. The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 70% over the past eight years, reflecting its strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns [53][97]. - The company is well-positioned within the Guangdong transportation network, benefiting from the ongoing expansion and improvement of highway infrastructure in the region. The completion of expansion projects for key highways is anticipated to enhance traffic flow and revenue generation [40][51]. - The company has a significant competitive advantage due to its strategic location and the high traffic volume on its toll roads, with average toll revenue per kilometer exceeding 13 million CNY annually [34][274]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights an expected improvement in the macroeconomic environment, which is anticipated to boost the company's performance. The infrastructure sector is set to benefit from increased government spending and supportive policies [5][243]. Company Overview - The company operates as the only publicly listed highway platform under the Guangdong Transportation Group, focusing on toll road operations. It has undergone two major asset restructurings, enhancing its profitability and market position [40][71]. - As of the end of 2023, the company controls approximately 295.88 kilometers of highways, with significant revenue contributions from its key toll roads [40][111]. Financial Performance - The company reported a toll revenue of 48.11 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected decline in revenue for 2024 due to the impact of the newly opened Shen-Zhong Channel, which is expected to gradually stabilize [11][92]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit of 16.10 billion CNY in 2024, with slight growth expected in subsequent years [251][248]. Highway Expansion Projects - The ongoing expansion of the Jingzhu Expressway and Guanghui Expressway is expected to significantly increase capacity and toll revenue. The Jingzhu Expressway is projected to complete its expansion by 2027, with toll rates expected to rise by approximately 30% post-expansion [11][187]. - The Guanghui Expressway is also undergoing preparatory work for expansion, with completion expected by the end of 2028 [239][242]. Competitive Position - The company benefits from a strong market position within the Guangdong province, where it holds a significant share of the toll road market. The competitive landscape is characterized by stable pricing and a mature network of highways [34][126]. - The report notes that the company's toll revenue per kilometer is among the highest in the industry, reflecting its operational efficiency and strategic asset management [34][179].