TONGWEI CO.,LTD(600438) 华安证券·2024-12-31 06:38Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) [33] Core Views - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading company in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, with its main business divided into two segments: photovoltaic and agriculture [33][66] - The photovoltaic segment includes the research, production, and sales of silicon materials, solar cells, and modules, which accounted for 73.92% of the company's revenue in 2023 [33][66] - The report anticipates that the silicon material industry will reach a bottom in 2024, with potential price recovery in 2025, benefiting Tongwei due to its leading cost and capacity in the industry [33][24] - The battery cell segment is expected to recover first from the oversupply situation, with significant improvements in profitability projected for 2025 [33][62] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 846 billion, 972 billion, and 1,139 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -39%, +15%, and +17% [33][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -47 billion, 42 billion, and 83 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -134.6%, +189%, and +100.5% [33][12] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 7.5%, 12.2%, and 16.2% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [33][12] Industry Overview - The silicon material industry is experiencing severe oversupply, leading to rapid price declines and widespread losses among companies [3][52] - By the end of 2024, the silicon material industry capacity is expected to reach 303.83 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 47% [4][3] - The report indicates that the global demand for photovoltaic modules is projected to grow by 33% in 2024, reaching 592 GW [26][31] Production Capacity - Tongwei's silicon material production capacity is expected to increase from 435,000 tons in 2023 to 750,000 tons in 2024 [4] - The company has a solar cell production capacity of 95 GW and a module production capacity of 75 GW, maintaining a leading position in the industry [8][33] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the battery cell segment is the least affected by oversupply and is expected to see price and profitability recovery first in 2025 [9][62] - The transition from P-type to N-type cells is anticipated to accelerate in the first half of 2024, further enhancing market dynamics [9][62]