huahaipharm(600521) 广发证券·2024-12-31 08:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The reasonable value of the company is estimated at 21.57 CNY per share [3] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by its domestic formulation business and the expansion of its product lines in both raw materials and overseas formulations [11][14][76] Summary by Sections Domestic Formulations - The domestic formulation business has seen rapid growth, with revenue reaching 3.476 billion CNY in 2023, supported by improved approval efficiency and market share gains through centralized procurement [20][36] - The company has successfully participated in multiple rounds of national centralized procurement, which has allowed it to quickly capture market share and expand its retail market presence [20][42] - The company aims to continue focusing on high-demand, competitive formulation products, with a projected revenue of 4.171 billion CNY in 2024, growing to 5.232 billion CNY by 2026 [99] Raw Materials - The raw material business is a cornerstone of the company's development, with a revenue of 3.16 billion CNY in 2023 and a gross margin of 47.8% [60] - The company has strategically positioned itself in high-volume, patent-expiring products, which are expected to enter a rapid growth phase as generics become available [55][62] - Revenue from raw materials is projected to grow from 3.476 billion CNY in 2024 to 4.718 billion CNY by 2026, with improving gross margins [99] Overseas Formulations - The overseas formulation business has rebounded significantly, achieving revenue of 1.46 billion CNY in 2023, a 49.6% increase year-on-year [76] - The company has rapidly accumulated ANDA approvals, with 24 approvals in 2022 and a return to pre-ban levels of around 10 approvals per year in 2023 [69][81] - The overseas formulation revenue is expected to grow from 1.528 billion CNY in 2024 to 1.685 billion CNY by 2026, maintaining a gross margin of around 43% [100] Biopharmaceutical Layout - The company is actively expanding into biopharmaceuticals, with 15 products in development across various therapeutic areas, including autoimmune diseases and oncology [85][94] - The biopharmaceutical segment is anticipated to provide a second growth curve for the company, complementing its existing product lines [85] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.265 billion CNY, 1.498 billion CNY, and 1.777 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.44, 18.11, and 15.27 [107][135] - The investment recommendation is to buy, with a target price of 21.57 CNY per share based on a 25x PE valuation for 2024 [135]