JNGX(600527) 东吴证券·2024-12-31 10:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for Jiangnan High Fiber (600527) [3][12] Core Views - Jiangnan High Fiber is a dual leader in polyester top and composite short fiber, with significant scale advantages, high-quality customer resources, and advanced production technology [3] - The company has completed technical upgrades, further expanding its polyester top production capacity, and the demand for composite short fiber products is expected to grow due to aging trends [3] - The company's 2023 performance fell short of expectations, and 2024 is expected to face short-term pressure, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 [3] - The company's stock buyback for employee incentives demonstrates management's confidence in future development [12] Business Overview - Jiangnan High Fiber is the largest domestic producer of polyester top and composite short fiber, with products mainly used in woolen fabrics and disposable hygiene products [1] - In 2023, the revenue breakdown by product was 44% composite short fiber, 20% polyester top, 33% chemical trade, and 3% others [1] - Geographically, 95% of revenue comes from mainland China, and 5% from overseas markets [1] - The company's top five customers accounted for approximately 50% of revenue in 2023 [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company actively reduced its chemical trade business, leading to a revenue decline of 22.70% YoY and a net profit decline of 15.79% YoY in the first three quarters [2] - Historically, the company experienced rapid growth in revenue and net profit from 2001 to 2012, with CAGRs of 23% and 27%, respectively [2] - From 2013 to 2019, revenue and net profit declined due to falling crude oil and chemical fiber prices, weak downstream demand, and losses from affiliated companies [2] - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 boosted demand for composite fibers, leading to a significant increase in performance, which later declined after 2021 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a net profit of 410.5 million yuan for 2024, 529.2 million yuan for 2025, and 615.4 million yuan for 2026 [1] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 95X, 74X, and 64X, respectively [3] - The EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.02 yuan, 0.03 yuan, and 0.04 yuan, respectively [1] Market Data - The closing price of Jiangnan High Fiber is 2.21 yuan, with a one-year low/high of 1.33/3.50 yuan [5] - The P/B ratio is 1.78, and the market capitalization is 3,827.19 million yuan [5] Financial Statements - The company's total assets are expected to be 2,287 million yuan in 2024, 2,348 million yuan in 2025, and 2,420 million yuan in 2026 [8] - The gross profit margin is projected to increase from 9.67% in 2023 to 13.97% in 2026 [8] - The net profit margin attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 5.61% in 2023 to 7.38% in 2026 [8] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow is forecasted to be 225 million yuan in 2024, 93 million yuan in 2025, and 101 million yuan in 2026 [23] - Capital expenditures are expected to be 48 million yuan in 2024, 54 million yuan in 2025, and 61 million yuan in 2026 [23] Business Prospects - The polyester top business is mature, with future growth driven by differentiated and functional high-value-added products [13] - The composite short fiber business has growth potential, particularly in adult incontinence products, with opportunities to increase capacity utilization by expanding the customer base [13]