Oriental Semi(688261) 东吴证券·2024-12-31 11:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The product matrix continues to expand with successful trial production of 12-inch super junction MOSFETs at 900V and 1000V, and ongoing development of the 1200V series [3] - Emerging market demand is gradually recovering, alleviating supply pressure, particularly in the photovoltaic energy storage inverter and new energy sectors, leading to a stable revenue growth [3] - Despite increased demand, market competition remains fierce, especially in the high-voltage super junction and TGBT product areas, with short-term price pressures expected [3] - The company's profitability structure is expected to optimize and gross margins improve as market competition stabilizes and demand recovers [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Due to declining demand in the power semiconductor sector and falling product prices, the profit forecast for 2024-2025 has been revised down from 350 million to 70 million and from 460 million to 120 million, with a new forecast for 2026 set at 210 million [4] - Corresponding P/E valuations are projected at 75, 47, and 26 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the company's leading position in 12-inch technology [4] Market Data - The closing price is 45.05 yuan, with a one-year low of 28.00 yuan and a high of 83.63 yuan [6] - The market capitalization is approximately 5,520.04 million yuan [6] Financial Metrics - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 972.85 million yuan, with a slight increase to 994.35 million yuan in 2024 [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline significantly from 140.03 million yuan in 2023 to 74 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 210.01 million yuan in 2026 [8] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 15.59% in 2024, improving to 24.63% by 2026 [8] Product Development - The company has successfully expanded production from 8-inch to 12-inch foundries for high-voltage super junction MOSFETs, significantly enhancing capacity utilization [18] - The third and fourth generation products in the high-voltage super junction MOSFET sector have been delivered to the market in large quantities, with the fifth generation products starting small batch deliveries [18] - Investments through industrial funds in the semiconductor industry and new energy sectors are expected to enhance the company's long-term growth and stability [18]