Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank(601077) 西南证券·2024-12-31 13:39Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) with a target price of 7.39 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive macroeconomic policies and the development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, which are expected to boost overall credit demand in Chongqing, allowing Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank to steadily expand its balance sheet [2][71]. - The bank's loan-to-total-assets ratio is currently at 46.8%, significantly lower than the industry average of 57.2%, indicating potential for optimizing asset structure to mitigate the negative effects of interest rate cuts on income from interest-earning assets [2]. - The bank has a strong cost advantage with a deposit interest rate of only 1.8%, which is 18 basis points lower than its peers, contributing to its competitive position [2][12]. - The bank has actively written off non-performing loans, resulting in improved asset quality, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing from 1.3% in 2020 to 1.2% in Q3 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, established in 1951, has grown to become the largest rural commercial bank in China by asset size, with total assets reaching 15,174.67 billion CNY as of Q3 2024 [22][48]. - The bank has a robust shareholder structure, with the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission holding a 31.02% stake [26][52]. Asset and Liability Management - The bank's total assets have shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2020 to 2023 [48]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio is 1.2%, ranking second among listed rural commercial banks, while its provision coverage ratio stands at 358.6% [30][57]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts the bank's book value per share (BVPS) to be 10.97 CNY in 2024, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.54, 0.51, and 0.48 for 2024-2026 [14]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be around 8.31%, which is in line with the industry average [31][34]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The bank has a significant market presence in Chongqing, with a county-level deposit market share of 32.2% as of 2023, supported by a wide network of 1,741 branches [12][74]. - The ongoing development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is expected to enhance credit demand, particularly in the public sector, benefiting the bank's growth trajectory [71].