FAW Jiefang(000800) 光大证券·2025-01-01 08:07Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating to the company, with expected net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.6/11.6/14.2 billion yuan for 2024-2026E, representing a YoY growth of +13.2%/+33.9%/+23.1% [44][50] Core Views - The company has a comprehensive product line covering heavy-duty, medium-duty, and light-duty trucks, with heavy-duty trucks accounting for 71.5% of total sales in the first 10 months of 2024 [1] - Heavy-duty trucks are the company's focus, with significant market share advantages domestically and ongoing efforts in new energy and intelligent vehicle layouts [2][6] - The company's performance has rebounded from a low point due to cost control and product structure adjustments, with revenue and net profit showing mixed trends in recent years [11][12] - Overseas expansion and new energy vehicle development are key growth drivers for the company's future performance [25][44] Product and Market Analysis - The company has a leading market share in the heavy-duty truck segment, maintaining the top position from 2016 to 2021 with a peak market share of 24.8% in 2021 [6] - The company has accelerated its layout in new energy heavy-duty trucks, launching products such as pure electric dump trucks, fuel cell trucks, and hybrid trucks [2] - In the intelligent vehicle sector, the company has released L2+ and L4 level intelligent products, positioning itself as an international leader [2] - The company's heavy-duty truck sales have shown fluctuations in recent years, with market share remaining in the top three despite some decline [8] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have shown significant fluctuations, with revenue in 2021-2024 Q3 being 987.5/383.3/639.0/451.4 billion yuan, and net profit being 39.0/3.7/7.6/3.6 billion yuan [11] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin have declined slightly, with gross margin at 6.7% and net profit margin at 0.8% in 2024 Q3 [12] - The company's sales, management, and R&D expense ratios have shown mixed trends, with R&D expenses being controlled [12] Industry Outlook - The heavy-duty truck industry is expected to stabilize and recover, with domestic demand and overseas markets being key growth drivers [25][27] - The industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with new energy and intelligent vehicles becoming important directions for future development [29][30] - Domestic demand for heavy-duty trucks is expected to recover, driven by infrastructure investment and logistics growth [33][36] - The industry is expected to benefit from policy support, including subsidies for vehicle replacement and new energy vehicles [99][102] Overseas Expansion - The company has accelerated its overseas expansion, with exports to over 80 countries and regions, including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa [44][124] - The company plans to further expand its overseas market presence, with expected export sales of 6.0/7.3/8.5 million units in 2024E-2026E [65][124] - Overseas markets are expected to become a key profit growth point for the company, with export models contributing to higher ASP and profitability [44][124]