Marubi(603983) 广发证券·2025-01-01 23:29Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 39.25 CNY per share, reflecting a 35x PE for 2025 [55][63]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong growth momentum since the end of 2022, achieving seven consecutive quarters of high growth. The expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.5 billion, 4.5 billion, and 5.5 billion CNY respectively [7][63]. - The main brand, Marubi, is focusing on big product lines and enhancing online channel development, with significant sales growth observed in key products [11][63]. - The sub-brand, Lianhuo, has maintained high profit margins while achieving substantial revenue growth, indicating a strong second growth curve for the company [5][11]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 2.906 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.6%. The gross margin is expected to improve to 71.9% [12][64]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is estimated at 353 million CNY, reflecting a 36.2% increase compared to the previous year [12][64]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the gross merchandise volume (GMV) for key products on platforms like Douyin, with the small red pen eye cream achieving a GMV of 426 million CNY, up 202% year-on-year [11][63]. Brand Performance - Marubi brand revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 27.2%, 22.5%, and 18.8% respectively, while Lianhuo is expected to grow at 40%, 35%, and 30% during the same period [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the company's successful adjustments in product offerings and e-commerce operations, which have contributed to its recovery and growth in a challenging market environment [7][11]. Market Context - The beauty and cosmetics industry has faced pressures due to the pandemic, but the report indicates a recovery in consumer demand and a favorable outlook for the company [7][15]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with the need for continuous product innovation to maintain market share [15].