SAIC MOTOR(600104) 东方证券·2025-01-02 03:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 22.26 CNY [2][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from national reforms, leading to a stabilization and upward trend in profitability. The overall retail sales are projected to exceed wholesale sales significantly [15][16]. - The company has shown a slight increase in wholesale sales in December, with a total annual sales volume of 4.013 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1% [16]. - The company anticipates a recovery in wholesale sales in 2025, driven by the completion of inventory reduction efforts [16][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue (Million CNY): - 2022A: 720,988 - 2023A: 726,199 (0.7% YoY growth) - 2024E: 659,813 (-9.1% YoY) - 2025E: 714,524 (8.3% YoY) - 2026E: 760,302 (6.4% YoY) [1] - Operating Profit (Million CNY): - 2022A: 26,022 - 2023A: 25,937 (-0.3% YoY) - 2024E: 17,060 (-34.2% YoY) - 2025E: 20,364 (19.4% YoY) - 2026E: 22,001 (8.0% YoY) [1] - Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company (Million CNY): - 2022A: 16,118 - 2023A: 14,106 (-12.5% YoY) - 2024E: 10,329 (-26.8% YoY) - 2025E: 12,295 (19.0% YoY) - 2026E: 13,269 (7.9% YoY) [1] - Earnings Per Share (CNY): - 2022A: 1.39 - 2023A: 1.22 - 2024E: 0.89 - 2025E: 1.06 - 2026E: 1.15 [1] - Gross Margin (%): - 2022A: 9.6% - 2023A: 10.2% - 2024E: 10.2% - 2025E: 10.7% - 2026E: 10.9% [1] - Net Margin (%): - 2022A: 2.2% - 2023A: 1.9% - 2024E: 1.6% - 2025E: 1.7% - 2026E: 1.7% [1] - Return on Equity (%): - 2022A: 5.8% - 2023A: 5.0% - 2024E: 3.5% - 2025E: 4.0% - 2026E: 4.2% [1] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: - 2023A: 17.0 - 2024E: 23.3 - 2025E: 19.5 - 2026E: 18.1 [1] - Price-to-Book Ratio: - 2023A: 0.8 - 2024E: 0.8 - 2025E: 0.8 - 2026E: 0.7 [1]