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西部水泥更新:埃塞复价+产能持续爬坡,25年海外盈利弹性有望兑现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [3]. Core Views - There is an expectation of price increases in domestic and international cement markets, particularly in Ethiopia, where recent changes in trade arrangements are anticipated to boost sales prices [13]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in the coming years, with projected net profits of 10.9 billion, 19.5 billion, and 27.9 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 6.2, 3.5, and 2.4 [14]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in Africa, with new projects in Ethiopia, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, which are expected to enhance its market position and profitability [19]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next 6 months [5]. Price and Profitability - The report highlights a positive outlook for cement prices, with expectations of price increases in both domestic and international markets, particularly in Ethiopia and other African regions [13]. - The company’s profitability is projected to remain stable, with significant growth anticipated due to new projects and price adjustments [14]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively increasing its production capacity, with significant projects underway in Ethiopia and plans for further expansion in other African countries [19].