Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Views - Since October, domestic demand for building materials has shown weakness, with cement affected by cooling, rainfall, and funding issues, resulting in a year-on-year shipment rate still 10 percentage points lower as of last Friday. Glass prices are hindered by insufficient replenishment sentiment post-holiday, leading to increased producer inventory and price stagnation. Currently, the profitability of major building materials like cement and glass remains at relatively low levels. A previously released plan for stable growth in the building materials industry suggests potential continued policy support for supply-side optimization in the fourth quarter. As the year-end performance sprint approaches, companies may increasingly seek to optimize supply and raise prices through market mechanisms. Recent market performance indicates a relative advantage for cyclical stocks, suggesting a possible style shift in the fourth quarter. The building materials sector currently possesses both low valuation defensive attributes and valuation recovery momentum under anti-involution catalysts, continuing to recommend high-demand African cement and glass fiber with price increase expectations [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week (October 13-17, 2025), the CSI 300 index fell by 2.22%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) dropped by 3.48%. Among sub-sectors, ceramics and glass performed relatively well, while fiberglass saw a significant decline. Notable individual stock performances included Fashilong (up 18.1%), Huali Shares (up 14.5%), Hainan Development (up 10.9%), Saitex New Materials (up 7.7%), and Tubao (up 6.9%) [1][9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends the following stocks: Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, Qingsong Construction, China National Materials, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Sankeshu, and Dongpeng Holdings. The current building materials industry is nearing a cyclical bottom, with high-demand new materials expected to continue demonstrating growth potential. Cement is anticipated to benefit from improving infrastructure and real estate demand, with long-term supply dynamics expected to optimize. Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, Western Cement, and Qingsong Construction, with a focus on companies like Sankeshu and Dongpeng Holdings that are likely to improve their balance sheets as real estate policies become more favorable [3][17].

国泰海通发布研报称，国内需求下滑背景下，水泥出海已成必选题。西部水泥在2020年就开启了出海战 略，首条产线落地莫桑比克，后以每年新进一国的速度扩张，2024年底公司已布局莫桑比克、刚果金、 埃塞俄比亚、乌兹别克斯坦四个国家，该行认为公司出海的决心坚定、时机及时、进展迅速。 西部水泥(02233)涨超5%，高见3.68港元，再创历史新高。截至发稿，涨5.17%，报3.66港元。 该行指出，2024年公司海外单吨毛利高达288元/吨、远高于国内的42元/吨，公司推进高毛利的海外布 局战略坚定不移。2025年6月公司公告拟以16.5亿元出售新疆水泥资产，此举有助于缓解债务压力，保 障海外扩张进展(乌干达新建、刚果金收购、津巴布韦产线、莫桑比克北部产线、远期安哥拉等项目)。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，西部水泥(02233)涨超5%，高见3.68港元，再创历史新高。截至发稿，涨5.17%，报 3.66港元。 国泰海通发布研报称，国内需求下滑背景下，水泥出海已成必选题。西部水泥在2020年就开启了出海战 略，首条产线落地莫桑比克，后以每年新进一国的速度扩张，2024年底公司已布局莫桑比克、刚果金、 埃塞俄比亚、乌兹别克斯坦四个国家，该行认为公司出海的决心坚定、时机及时、进展迅速。 该行指出，2024年公司海外单吨毛利高达288元/吨、远高于国内的42元/吨，公司推进高毛利的海外布 局战略坚定不移。2025年6月公司公告拟以16.5亿元出售新疆水泥资产，此举有助于缓解债务压力，保 障海外扩张进展(乌干达新建、刚果金收购、津巴布韦产线、莫桑比克北部产线、远期安哥拉等项目)。 ...

国泰海通发表报告，首次覆盖西部水泥，予"增持"评级，目标价3.73港元。该行预计公司2025至27年各 年净利润分别为11.43亿、14.22亿及20.15亿元，每股盈利分别为0.21元、0.26元及0.37元。 报告指，中国水泥产量自2022年开始逐年下滑，且下滑速度较快，疲软的需求使得供给侧错峰保价难以 维持，内地水泥价格随之跌入谷底，出海已成必选题。公司在2020年就开启了出海战略，首条产线落地 莫桑比克，后以每年新进一国的速度扩张，2024年底公司已布局莫桑比克、刚果(金)、埃塞俄比亚、乌 兹别克斯坦四个国家，认为公司出海的决心坚定、时机及时、进展迅速。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the cement industry is facing significant operational pressure due to low prices, despite a mild recovery in market demand and ongoing production adjustments by companies [1][2] - To improve profitability, cement companies are actively raising prices, with some leading firms in Zhejiang planning to increase prices by 30 yuan/ton starting October 15 [2] - The national average cement price in September was 338 yuan/ton, showing a slight month-on-month increase, while the gross profit per ton for cement companies was 58 yuan, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][3] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the cement sector achieved revenues of 118.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, but net profit increased significantly by 1487% to 5.2 billion yuan [3] - The cement industry's fundamentals may have reached a turning point, with supply-side production restrictions and demand-side infrastructure support expected to lead to gradual improvements in the second half of the year [3] - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the cement and building materials sector include China National Building Material, Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, and Western Cement [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the cement industry is facing significant operational pressure due to low prices and fluctuating demand, prompting companies to raise prices to improve profitability [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued a plan to stabilize growth in the building materials industry, which includes strict control over cement and glass production capacity [1]. - In Zhejiang, there has been a slight recovery in market demand, but prices remain low, leading to increased operational pressure for companies [1]. Group 2 - In September, the national average cement price was 338 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton, and the gross profit per ton for cement companies was 58 yuan, up by 3 yuan [2]. - The cement sector reported revenues of 118.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, but net profit increased significantly by 1487% to 5.2 billion yuan [2]. - Analysts believe that the cement industry's fundamentals may have reached a turning point, with expectations of gradual improvement in the second half of the year due to supply-side restrictions and demand support from infrastructure projects [2]. Group 3 - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the cement and building materials sector include China National Building Material, Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, and Western Cement [3].

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：鲍雁辛/申浩/花健祎/冯晨阳 本报告导读： 国内需求下滑之下出海已成必选题。中国水泥产量自2022 年开始逐年下滑，且下滑速度较快，疲软的 需求使得供给侧错峰保价难以维持，国内水泥价格随之跌入谷底，出海已成必选题。公司未雨绸缪，在 2020 年就开启了出海战略，首条产线落地莫桑比克，后以每年新进一国的速度扩张，2024 年底公司已 布局莫桑比克、刚果金、埃塞俄比亚、乌兹别克斯坦四个国家，我们认为公司出海的决心坚定、时机及 时、进展迅速。 出售新疆资产，坚定不移推进海外战略。2024 年公司海外单吨毛利高达288 元/吨、远高于国内的42 元/ 吨，公司推进高毛利的海外布局战略坚定不移。2025 年6 月公司公告拟以16.5 亿元出售新疆水泥资产， 我们认为此举有助于缓解债务压力，保障海外扩张进展（乌干达新建、刚果金收购、津巴布韦产线、莫 桑比克北部产线、远期安哥拉等项目）。 风险提示。汇率风险，外汇管制风险，成本抬升风险。 公司水泥海外产能除了乌兹别克斯坦外，均布局在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，是中国水泥企业出海的翘楚。 投资要点： 首次覆盖，"增持"评级：我们预计公司2025-2027年 ...

非洲水泥专家交流 20251015 摘要 非洲水泥市场竞争激烈，本土大型私企、重组国企、老牌跨国公司及新 兴投资者并存，整体盈利空间大于国内，但依赖进口国家易受贸易政策 影响。 中国企业积极布局非洲水泥市场，华新水泥和西部水泥决策迅速，已占 据优势；海螺集团和中国建材虽有意投资，但进展较慢；中国建材主要 通过装备销售和 OEM 生产获利。 未来 5-10 年，非洲水泥价格和盈利水平预计将压缩，原因包括本地企 业贸易差价优势减弱、原材料及物流成本下降、中资企业大型生产线摊 销成本降低。 丹格特作为非洲本土优秀民营企业，管理水平高，盈利能力强于中资企 业和老牌跨国公司，其价格体系设计和客户资源管理是关键优势。 尼日利亚水泥市场由丹格特主导，竞争激烈，价格略有下降；埃塞俄比 亚需求旺盛但面临过剩风险；坦桑尼亚是东非重要出口基地，价格稳定； 莫桑比克受益于矿产资源，增长迅速。 非洲水泥产能利用率低但价格高，主要原因是电力供应不足、原材料错 配、物流问题以及管理水平较低，实际产能利用率约为 50%。 Q&A 非洲水泥市场的整体供需情况及发展趋势如何？ 过去十年，非洲水泥市场的产能、产量和需求增长迅速。非洲内部可分为四大 ...

中国水泥产量自2022年开始逐年下滑，且下滑速度较快，疲软的需求使得供给侧错峰保价难以维持，国 内水泥价格随之跌入谷底，出海已成必选题。公司未雨绸缪，在2020年就开启了出海战略，首条产线落 地莫桑比克，后以每年新进一国的速度扩张，2024年底公司已布局莫桑比克、刚果金、埃塞俄比亚、乌 兹别克斯坦四个国家，该行认为公司出海的决心坚定、时机及时、进展迅速。 出售新疆资产，坚定不移推进海外战略 国泰海通发布研报称，首次覆盖西部水泥(02233)，予"增持"评级，预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分 别为11.43/14.22/20.15亿元，EPS分别为0.21/0.26/0.37元，鉴于公司是出海翘楚、成长性强，参考可比公 司，该行认可给予公司2026年13倍PE、合理价格3.72港元(人民币兑港元=0.91：1)，给予公司2026年1.3 倍PB估值、合理价格3.74港元，审慎起见选取目标价3.73港元。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 积极出海的陕西水泥龙头 截至2024年底，第一大股东张先生直接、间接合计持股约32.3%，海螺持股29.0%。2024年公司国内销 售水泥1574万吨(其中陕西1320万吨)、实 ...

积极出海的陕西水泥龙头 风险提示 截至2024年底，第一大股东张先生直接、间接合计持股约32.3%，海螺持股29.0%。2024年公司国内销 售水泥1574万吨(其中陕西1320万吨)、实现收入约52亿元、溢利约3.5亿元，海外销售水泥403万吨、实 现收入约32亿元、溢利约8.9亿元，公司海外溢利占比高，可谓积极出海典范。 汇率风险，外汇管制风险，成本抬升风险。 出售新疆资产，坚定不移推进海外战略 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，首次覆盖西部水泥(02233)，予"增持"评级，预计公司2025- 2027年归母净利润分别为11.43/14.22/20.15亿元，EPS分别为0.21/0.26/0.37元，鉴于公司是出海翘楚、成 长性强，参考可比公司，该行认可给予公司2026年13倍PE、合理价格3.72港元(人民币兑港元=0.91： 1)，给予公司2026年1.3倍PB估值、合理价格3.74港元，审慎起见选取目标价3.73港元。 2024年公司海外单吨毛利高达288元/吨、远高于国内的42元/吨，公司推进高毛利的海外布局战略坚定 不移。2025年6月公司公告拟以16.5亿元出售新疆水泥资产，该行认为 ...