Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability, with a price turning point for glass anticipated due to a reduction in supply and inventory [10][11]. - The company has faced challenges in the second half of the year, with a continuous decline in photovoltaic glass prices leading to losses since August [2][9]. - The report highlights that the company has begun cold repairs on existing furnaces to manage production capacity amid declining prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company forecasts a 70% to 80% year-on-year decrease in net profit for 2024, estimating a net profit of between 770 million to 1.15 billion RMB, with a median of 960 million RMB [8]. - The expected loss for the second half of 2024 is projected to be between 640 million to 1.02 billion RMB, with a median loss of 830 million RMB [8]. Operational Analysis - The company has cold repaired a total of 27,500 tons of daily melting capacity in 2024, accounting for over 20% of its existing capacity, indicating a significant reduction in industry supply [3]. - The report anticipates that the supply of photovoltaic glass will remain low in the short term, with a potential recovery in demand post-Spring Festival, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [3][10]. Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1.08 billion, 2.62 billion, and 3.55 billion HKD respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of only 0.9 times [11]. - The report indicates that the company’s market share is expected to recover due to limited supply increases and the potential for a price turning point in the photovoltaic glass market [11].
信义光能：业绩预告夯实底部，玻璃价格拐点将至