SMIC(688981) 国盛证券·2025-01-02 08:53Investment Rating - Buy (首次) [4] Core Views - SMIC is a leading player in China's semiconductor foundry industry, ranking third globally with a 6% market share in 24Q3 [6] - The company achieved record-high revenue of 15.61 billion RMB in 24Q3, up 14.14% QoQ and 32.50% YoY [6] - SMIC is expected to achieve revenue of 56.4/65.2/73.3 billion RMB in 2024/2025/2026, with YoY growth of 24.7%/15.5%/12.5% respectively [7] Industry Overview - The foundry industry is capital-intensive and highly concentrated, with CR5 exceeding 90% [2] - Global foundry output value is expected to increase by 20% YoY in 2025, driven by AI and supply chain inventory improvements [2] - China's chip self-sufficiency rate was 18.3% in 2022, indicating significant room for domestic substitution [2] Company Operations - SMIC provides foundry services from 0.35μm to 14nm nodes, with total capacity reaching 880k wafers/month (8-inch equivalent) in 24Q3 [6] - The company has multiple 8-inch and 12-inch fabs in Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, and Shenzhen [6] - SMIC is the first Chinese company to achieve 14nm FinFET mass production and is leading domestic advanced node development [25] Financial Performance - 24Q3 revenue reached 15.61 billion RMB, with gross margin of 23.92% [74] - 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted at 56.4/65.2/73.3 billion RMB, with net profit of 4.0/5.3/6.8 billion RMB [7] - R&D expenses reached 3.895 billion RMB in 24Q1-Q3, up 7% YoY [51] Technology Development - SMIC has achieved mass production of 14nm FinFET and is developing N+1 process [39] - The company has 17,956 invention patent applications and 11,865 granted patents as of 24H1 [51] - Key R&D projects include 28nm ultra-low leakage platform and 55nm high-voltage display driver platform [79] Market Position - SMIC ranks third globally in foundry with 6% market share in 24Q3 [6] - The company is the top foundry in mainland China, leading domestic advanced node development [25] - SMIC's 12-inch capacity reached 880k wafers/month (8-inch equivalent) in 24Q3 [6] Capacity Expansion - SMIC added 21k 12-inch wafer capacity in 24Q3, bringing total capacity to 884k wafers/month [53] - Capacity utilization rate improved to 90.4% in 24Q3 [53] - The company plans to continue 12-inch fab expansion in 2024 [128] Competitive Landscape - The global foundry market is highly concentrated, with CR5 exceeding 90% [2] - TSMC dominates with 64.9% market share in 24Q3, followed by Samsung (9.3%) and SMIC (6.0%) [97] - China's foundry market grew from 39.1 billion RMB in 2018 to 77.1 billion RMB in 2022, with 18.5% CAGR [102] Future Outlook - AI demand is expected to drive foundry industry growth, with AI server revenue CAGR of 39% from 2022-2027 [62] - SMIC is well-positioned to benefit from domestic substitution and AI-driven demand [7] - The company's valuation is supported by its leading position in China's semiconductor industry [138]