GREE(000651) 光大证券·2025-01-03 00:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances, with a target price of 54.10 CNY [5][15]. Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances is positioned as a low-valuation, high-dividend stock, with expectations for value re-evaluation. The current dividend yield is 6.2%, which is higher than that of major dividend stocks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (5.2%), China Shenhua (5.3%), and Yangtze Power (3.5%) [5][6]. - The report highlights the company's strong governance through employee stock ownership and share buybacks, enhancing its operational trends and profitability [5][6]. - Future projections indicate a steady increase in net profit, with estimates of 30.31 billion CNY for 2024, 32.91 billion CNY for 2025, and 36.42 billion CNY for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 4.47%, 8.58%, and 10.66% respectively [20][22]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - Gree Electric's absolute return over the past year is 50.28%, with a relative return of 34.08% [2]. Dividend Analysis - The expected dividend yield of 6.2% is significant, especially in the current interest rate environment where the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.7%, making Gree's yield particularly attractive [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Gree's revenue to be 199.35 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline from 205.02 billion CNY in 2023, followed by a recovery to 216.88 billion CNY in 2025 [20]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 8 for 2024 and 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [20][22]. Governance and Corporate Actions - Gree has implemented employee stock ownership plans and share buybacks, which are expected to improve corporate governance and operational efficiency [5][6]. Market Position - Gree Electric Appliances is recognized as a leader in the air conditioning industry, benefiting from strong brand power, product strength, and channel barriers [5].