CNNP(601985) 国元证券·2025-01-03 00:33Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of 10.43 yuan for China Nuclear Power (601985) [1]. Core Viewpoints - China Nuclear Power is positioned as a leading player in the nuclear energy sector, with a robust portfolio of operational and under-construction nuclear power plants, contributing significantly to the country's clean energy transition [5][6][27]. - The company has demonstrated stable profitability in its nuclear operations while experiencing rapid growth in its renewable energy segments, particularly in wind and solar power [42][51]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections indicate a steady increase from 71,285.60 million yuan in 2022 to 94,646.60 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.03% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 9,010.35 million yuan in 2022 to 13,073.49 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.14% [9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain stable around 11% over the forecast period [9]. Operational Performance - As of September 30, 2024, the company operates 25 nuclear units with a total installed capacity of 23.75 million kilowatts and has 18 units under construction or approved for construction with a capacity of 20.64 million kilowatts, totaling 44.39 million kilowatts [17]. - The company also has a significant presence in non-nuclear clean energy, with operational capacity of 24.15 million kilowatts, including 7.83 million kilowatts from wind and 16.32 million kilowatts from solar [17]. Revenue Structure - From 2019 to 2023, the average annual compound growth rates for nuclear, wind, and solar revenues were 8.66%, 156.30%, and 123.91%, respectively, indicating a shift towards renewable energy sources [19]. - In 2023, the revenue breakdown was 84.66% from nuclear, 7.85% from solar, and 5.24% from wind, with a noticeable increase in the share of renewable energy in 2024 [19]. Industry Context - The global trend towards nuclear energy is gaining momentum, with over 70 countries committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, positioning nuclear power as a key player in achieving net-zero targets [28]. - China's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to increase nuclear power capacity to approximately 70 million kilowatts by 2025, highlighting the government's commitment to nuclear energy development [28][54].