桐昆股份：聚酯产业链景气偏弱，静待复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 13.20 [7][47]. Core Views - The polyester industry is currently experiencing weak demand, with a slow recovery in both domestic and international textile and apparel markets. The overall industry chain remains in a downturn, with production capacity continuing to expand and operating rates declining [1][46]. - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is recognized as the world's largest producer of polyester filament yarn, with significant production capacities in PTA, polymerization, and polyester filament yarn. The company's integrated advantages are expected to continue to strengthen as the peak production period in the industry comes to an end and outdated capacities are gradually eliminated [2][47]. - The report forecasts a recovery in the industry chain's supply-demand dynamics, which is anticipated to benefit the company as an industry leader [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of 10.2 million tons/year for PTA, 13 million tons/year for polymerization, and 13.5 million tons/year for polyester filament yarn. The company is extending its reach into upstream and downstream sectors, enhancing its integrated advantages [2]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: RMB 61,993 million - 2023: RMB 82,640 million (up 33.30%) - 2024E: RMB 93,713 million (up 13.40%) - 2025E: RMB 99,085 million (up 5.73%) - 2026E: RMB 103,671 million (up 4.63%) [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover significantly from RMB 130.21 million in 2022 to RMB 2,836 million in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 75.22% from 2023 to 2024 [3][47]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - EPS (latest diluted): RMB 0.05 in 2022, increasing to RMB 1.18 in 2026 - PE ratio: 217.95 in 2022, decreasing to 10.01 in 2026 - PB ratio: 0.82 in 2022, decreasing to 0.68 in 2026 - EV/EBITDA: 20.25 in 2022, decreasing to 5.58 in 2026 [3][47].