龙佰集团：产业链景气承压，公司成本优势凸显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longbai Group is maintained as "Overweight" [8][15]. Core Views - The report highlights that the titanium dioxide and titanium ore market has experienced a downturn since Q4 2024, primarily due to slow recovery in demand from sectors like real estate and the impact of anti-dumping measures on titanium dioxide exports from the EU and Brazil. Despite these challenges, Longbai Group's integrated advantages in the titanium industry and its leading cost advantages are expected to sustain its performance [13][14]. - The average price of domestic 46% titanium concentrate in Q4 2024 was reported at RMB 2,050 per ton, a decrease of 4.0% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to increased domestic supply and weak downstream demand for titanium dioxide. Longbai Group possesses high-quality titanium ore resources, with reserves accounting for 80% of the national total, and plans to expand its production capacity significantly by 2025 [13][14]. - The report anticipates a slight adjustment in profit expectations due to the decline in titanium dioxide and titanium ore prices, projecting net profits for 2024-2026 at RMB 3.21 billion, RMB 3.93 billion, and RMB 4.86 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.35, RMB 1.65, and RMB 2.04 [15]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Longbai Group are as follows: RMB 24.16 billion in 2022, RMB 26.79 billion in 2023, RMB 28.84 billion in 2024E, RMB 31.29 billion in 2025E, and RMB 34.92 billion in 2026E, reflecting growth rates of 17.16%, 10.92%, 7.65%, 8.48%, and 11.62% respectively [9]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from RMB 3.42 billion in 2022 to RMB 3.23 billion in 2023, before recovering to RMB 3.93 billion in 2025 and RMB 4.87 billion in 2026, indicating a growth trajectory in the latter years [9][15]. - The target price for Longbai Group is set at RMB 21.45, with the current closing price at RMB 17.18, suggesting a potential upside [10][15].