KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 华创证券·2025-01-03 07:15Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved its annual operating targets with revenue and net profit increasing by approximately 15.4% and 14.7% YoY respectively in 2024 [2] - The company completed its first share repurchase of 201,000 shares at an average price of 1,492.9 yuan, totaling 300 million yuan [2] - The company's 2024 production of Maotai base liquor was approximately 56,300 tons, and series liquor base liquor was approximately 48,100 tons [2] - The company's 2024 mid-term dividend of 30 billion yuan has been distributed, and the current dividend yield (TTM) is 3.7%, which is attractive to long-term investors [7] Financial Performance - Expected 2024 revenue and net profit are 173.8 billion yuan and 85.7 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY growth of 15.4% and 14.7% [2] - Q4 2024 revenue and profit are estimated at 50.68 billion yuan and 24.87 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 12% and 13.8% [2] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 68.51 yuan, 76.10 yuan, and 84.49 yuan, respectively [7] - The target price is set at 2,600 yuan, with the current price at 1,488.00 yuan [3] Product and Channel Strategy - Maotai liquor sales in Q4 increased by 13.6%, driven by increased sales of kilogram Maotai, while the 500ml Feitian Maotai maintained stable pricing [7] - Series liquor sales in Q4 grew by 3.4%, with a slowdown due to high base effects from the previous year and price stabilization measures [7] - The company has established three business units for Maotai 1935, Maotai Prince, and Hanjiang, aiming to stabilize brand image and achieve growth [7] Market Confidence and Shareholder Returns - The company's share repurchase and dividend distribution demonstrate its commitment to shareholder returns and market confidence [7] - The company's current dividend yield (TTM) of 3.7% is higher than the 10-year government bond yield, making it attractive to long-term investors [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on stable and sustainable growth in 2025, with a clear strategy for product and channel adjustments [7] - The company aims to increase the sales of multi-specification Feitian Maotai and develop designated scenarios and cultural Maotai products [7]