贵州茅台：顺利收官，2025着力“供需适配”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of approximately 1738 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 15.44%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 857 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 14.67% [3][4] - In 2024, the company produced approximately 56,300 tons of Maotai base liquor, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57%, and approximately 48,100 tons of series liquor, a year-on-year increase of 12.12% [4] - The company is focusing on "supply-demand adaptation" in 2025, aiming to balance product and channel structures, target new markets (such as catering and international markets), and enhance consumer reach and conversion [5] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1737.84 billion yuan in 2024 to 2065.99 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.43%, 8.05%, and 10.03% respectively [5][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 857.02 billion yuan in 2024 to 1024.51 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.68%, 7.71%, and 10.99% respectively [5][8] - EPS is projected to be 68.22 yuan, 73.48 yuan, and 81.56 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 20, and 18 times [5][8] Operational Highlights - In Q4 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of approximately 507 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 12.01%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 13.79% [4] - Maotai liquor revenue in Q4 2024 is expected to be approximately 447 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 13.61%, while series liquor revenue is expected to be approximately 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 3.40% [4] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 92% from 2024 to 2026 [12] - ROE is projected to be 36.4%, 36.0%, and 36.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [12] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to be 19.9%, 19.4%, and 19.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [12]