KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 华安证券·2025-01-05 02:12Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519) [8] Core Views - Profitability: Structural adjustments driving net profit margin [5] - Investment recommendation: Maintain "Buy" rating [5] - Expected steady growth in 2025, with single-digit revenue growth for Moutai liquor and double-digit growth for series liquor [5] - Adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026: 1739.2/1877.6/2000.7 billion yuan, with net profit of 857.7/924.5/981.5 billion yuan [5] - Current PE ratios: 22/20/19 times for 2024-2026 [5] Financial Performance - 24Q4: Expected revenue of 507 billion yuan (+12.01%), net profit of 249 billion yuan (+13.79%) [7] - 2024: Expected revenue of 1738 billion yuan (+15.44%), net profit of 857 billion yuan (+14.67%) [7] - Moutai liquor revenue grew by 13.6% in 24Q4, accounting for 89.6% of total revenue [7] - Series liquor revenue grew by 3.4% in 24Q4, with Moutai 1935 as a key driver [7] - Full-year 2024: Moutai liquor revenue grew by 15.18%, series liquor by 19.24% [7] - Net profit margin in 24Q4 increased by 0.8pct to 49.1%, while full-year margin decreased by 0.3pct to 49.3% [7] Product Strategy - Moutai liquor: Increased non-standard product offerings, reduced production of base liquor by over 900 tons to maintain brand value [7] - Series liquor: Focus on Moutai 1935, Prince, and Hanjiang, with expected volume growth through new product launches [5] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue: 1739.2/1877.6/2000.7 billion yuan, with net profit of 857.7/924.5/981.5 billion yuan [5] - Revenue growth rates: +15.5%/+8.0%/+6.6% for 2024-2026 [5] - Net profit growth rates: +14.8%/+7.8%/+6.2% for 2024-2026 [5] - ROE: 34.7%/33.2%/30.4%/27.8% for 2023-2026 [10] - EPS: 59.49/68.28/73.59/78.13 yuan for 2023-2026 [10] Valuation Metrics - PE ratios: 29.01/21.60/20.04/18.88 for 2023-2026 [10] - PB ratios: 10.05/7.17/6.09/5.24 for 2023-2026 [10] - EV/EBITDA: 20.22/14.43/13.07/12.06 for 2023-2026 [10]