KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 光大证券·2025-01-06 01:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) [4] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved a total operating revenue of approximately 173 8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15 44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 85 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14 67% [1] - The company successfully met its annual revenue growth target of 15% in 2024, with Moutai liquor and series liquor revenues increasing by 15 17% and 19 24% respectively [2] - The company is actively transforming to address industry challenges, focusing on consumer-centric marketing and supply-demand balance, with plans to increase the投放量 of Moutai liquor in 2025 and refine the product structure [3] Financial Performance - Estimated Q4 2024 revenue was 506 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12 0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 248 7 billion yuan, up 13 8% year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 49 08%, an increase of 0 77 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company produced approximately 5 63 million tons of Moutai liquor base liquor in 2024, a decrease of 1 58% compared to 2023, while series liquor base liquor production increased by 12 0% to 4 81 million tons [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on挖掘新消费需求 and transforming its customer base, particularly targeting the "new business" demographic [3] - Moutai plans to adjust the投放结构 of aged and珍品 Moutai products, with large规格飞天茅台 and文创 products expected to contribute to增量 [3] - The series liquor strategy revolves around Moutai 1935 as the core product, supported by Moutai王子酒 and汉酱酒, with increased market费用投入 and营销队伍 [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report slightly下调 the 2024-2026 net profit forecasts to 856 7/944 9/1041 2 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 0 8%/2 1%/3 1% from previous estimates [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22/20/18 times for 2024-2026 [4] - The company has announced a cash dividend ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026, with an interim dividend of approximately 30 billion yuan in 2024 and a share回购计划 of 3-6 billion yuan [4] Market Data - The total market capitalization of Kweichow Moutai is approximately 1 869 trillion yuan, with a total share capital of 1 256 billion shares [6] - The stock's one-year low/high range is 1 226 65/1 880 59 yuan, with a three-month turnover rate of 19 51% [6]