KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 天风证券·2025-01-07 00:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a target price of 1440 CNY [7] Core Views - The company held its 2025 distributor conference, emphasizing growth driven by volume increases [1] - The company aims to achieve a growth rate for its series liquor products that is not lower than the average growth rate of the top five listed companies [2] - The company plans to focus on three major product lines: Moutai 1935, Prince, and Hanjiang, aiming to create three 10-billion CNY business units [3] - The company will continue to optimize its product matrix and enhance brand value, with a focus on transitioning its customer base to target "new business" groups [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 15%, 9%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 1735 billion CNY, 1890 billion CNY, and 2047 billion CNY respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 15%, 9%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 858 billion CNY, 935 billion CNY, and 1013 billion CNY respectively [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 21X, 19X, and 18X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Product Strategy - The company will focus on building a product cluster around Moutai 1935, aiming to develop it into a core product line [3] - Prince liquor will be developed into the second 10-billion CNY product within two years, with a focus on high-end and low-alcohol variants [3] - The company plans to reduce the market supply of Hanjiang (Jiangxin Chuan) in 2025 [3] Channel Strategy - The company will continue to develop a matrix-style channel strategy, with plans to expand its sales team to support a 20-billion CNY sales scale [3] - The company will adjust the product structure of its self-operated and social channels to ensure market stability [3] Market Activities - The company plans to increase market activity spending to approximately 675 million CNY in 2025, an 83% year-on-year increase [4] - New products, including the Yisi Snake Year Zodiac Wine and Shengle Feitian Moutai, will be launched on January 5, 2025 [4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue in 2023 was 15056033 million CNY, with a growth rate of 1804% [6] - EBITDA for 2023 was 10396614 million CNY, with a projected growth to 11835591 million CNY in 2024 [6] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 7473407 million CNY, with a projected growth to 8581185 million CNY in 2024 [6] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the Food & Beverage/Alcohol II industry [7] - The company's A-share market capitalization is 180892483 million CNY, with a total share capital of 125620 million shares [8]