学大教育：股份回购彰显发展信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xueda Education (000526.SZ) with a current price of 43.55 CNY and a target value of 59.99 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's share buyback plan demonstrates confidence in its future development, aiming to repurchase shares worth 110 to 150 million CNY at a maximum price of 66.8 CNY per share, with the intention to cancel some of the repurchased shares [8]. - The repayment progress of the company's debts has exceeded expectations, with the remaining loan principal from Ziguang Zhuoyuan reduced from 614 million CNY at the beginning of 2024 to approximately 99 million CNY [8]. - The company is strategically positioned in personalized education and vocational training, maintaining high profitability levels, with revenue contributions from personalized, full-time, and vocational education at 81.4%, 14.0%, and 1.3% respectively in the first half of 2024 [8]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 200 million CNY, 284 million CNY, and 374 million CNY respectively, with a reference PE ratio of 26x for 2025, leading to a target value of 59.99 CNY per share [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,213 million CNY in 2023 to 4,189 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 23.1%, 23.9%, 25.9%, and 21.3% for the respective years [3][10]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from 526 million CNY in 2023 to 728 million CNY in 2026, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise significantly from 154 million CNY in 2023 to 374 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 1,035.2% in 2023 [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 1.31 CNY in 2023 to 3.03 CNY in 2026, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 38.28 to 14.35 [3][10].