WENS FOODSTUFF GROUP CO.(300498) 广发证券·2025-01-07 06:58Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd (300498 SZ) with a target price of 21 86 RMB [3] Core Views - Wens Foodstuff Group's 2024 performance met expectations with a significant turnaround in profitability The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9-9 5 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 241%-249% [7] - The company is expected to meet its 2024 slaughter target with steady growth in sow capacity The estimated annual profit per head of hog is around 280-300 RMB [7] - The company's broiler business also showed growth with a year-on-year increase in sales volume and a cost advantage The estimated annual profit per broiler is around 1 6-1 9 RMB [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 83 725 billion RMB in 2022 to 118 169 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 9 0% [2] - EBITDA is expected to increase significantly from 330 million RMB in 2023 to 21 058 billion RMB in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from -6 390 billion RMB in 2023 to 15 836 billion RMB in 2026 [2] - EPS is projected to rise from -0 97 RMB in 2023 to 2 38 RMB in 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - The company's hog sales reached 27 14 million heads in the first 11 months of 2024, a 16 5% increase year-on-year The full-year hog sales are expected to reach 30 million heads [7] - Broiler sales reached 1 1 billion heads in the first 11 months of 2024, a 1 9% increase year-on-year The full-year broiler sales are expected to reach 1 21 billion heads [7] - The company's comprehensive hog breeding cost decreased to 13 4 RMB/kg in October 2024, and the broiler production cost dropped to 11 4 RMB/kg [7] Valuation and Ratios - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 23 92x in 2022 to 6 75x in 2026 [2] - ROE is projected to improve from -19 3% in 2023 to 26 1% in 2026 [2] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decline from 490 25x in 2023 to 4 79x in 2026 [2] Historical Performance - The company's stock price underperformed the CSI 300 index by 23% from January 2024 to January 2025 [5]