HONGLU(SZ:002541) EBSCN·2025-01-07 23:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a new order value of 28.3 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, with Q4 2024 new orders at 6.4 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year [1][2]. - The production volume for steel structure products in 2024 is approximately 4.51 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 production at about 1.26 million tons, up 0.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is undergoing significant automation upgrades, which may temporarily affect production efficiency but are expected to enhance capacity utilization and reduce production costs in the long term [3]. Summary by Sections Orders - Excluding the impact of steel price fluctuations, Q4 2024 order volume is expected to show single-digit positive growth year-on-year. The decline in order value is primarily attributed to a 10% year-on-year drop in the average price of hot-rolled coils [2]. - The order amount for Q4 2024 decreased by 16% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with seasonal trends [2]. Production - Q4 2024 production remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%. The ongoing automation upgrades are anticipated to improve production efficiency in the long run [2][3]. Large Orders - The proportion of large orders slightly decreased, with an average price of approximately 5,402 yuan per ton in Q4 2024, down 2% year-on-year but up 7% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by steel price fluctuations [2]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.24 billion yuan, 1.30 billion yuan, and 1.65 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding dynamic P/E ratio of 9x for 2025 [3][25].