上海港湾：掘金印尼沙特，基建龙头加速出海

Investment Rating - The report gives the company an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 29.31 RMB, based on a 28x valuation for 2025 [3][45]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in soft soil foundation treatment, focusing on overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, where infrastructure demand is robust [1][20]. - The company has seen significant growth in overseas orders, with new contracts amounting to 1.874 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, significantly exceeding the 1.062 billion RMB signed in 2023 [2][21]. - The company is expected to experience a marginal increase in performance growth starting in 2025, driven by high demand for infrastructure projects in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia [3][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company provides comprehensive geotechnical engineering services, including investigation, design, construction, and monitoring, primarily focusing on overseas markets [1][10]. - The company has a strong financial performance with high gross and net profit margins, and excellent cash flow quality compared to industry peers [1][15]. Overseas Market Expansion - The company benefits from the urbanization and industrialization processes in emerging countries, leading to high demand for geotechnical engineering services [2][20]. - Indonesia contributed 54.5% to the company's net profit in 2023, with a projected GDP growth rate of 8.8% from 2010 to 2023, indicating strong future infrastructure investment [2][27]. - Saudi Arabia accounted for approximately 20% of the company's net profit in 2023, with ongoing mega projects like Neom driving infrastructure demand [2][31]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 204 million RMB, 257 million RMB, and 328 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 31x, 25x, and 20x [3][44]. - The overall revenue is projected to grow from 14.69 billion RMB in 2024 to 25.62 billion RMB in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% [3][44]. - The company maintains a low debt ratio of 19.1%, indicating strong financial health and cash flow management [18][17].