Muyuan Foods (002714) 广发证券·2025-01-09 07:52Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Muyuan Foods (002714 SZ) with a target price of 49 34 RMB [3] Core Views - Muyuan Foods achieved a net profit of 17 6-19 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 498 7%-522 2% [7] - The company's 2024 slaughter volume exceeded 71 million heads, successfully meeting the annual target with a 12 2% year-on-year increase [7] - Muyuan Foods' breeding efficiency continues to improve, with PSY reaching over 29 and a complete breeding cost of 13 1 RMB/kg in November 2024 [7] - The company's sow inventory increased by 196,000 heads in Q4 2024, supporting future slaughter volume growth [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 110 861 million RMB in 2023 to 149 413 million RMB in 2026 [2] - Net profit is expected to recover significantly from -4 263 million RMB in 2023 to 26 755 million RMB in 2026 [2] - EPS is forecasted to increase from -0 79 RMB in 2023 to 4 90 RMB in 2026 [2] - ROE is projected to improve from -6 8% in 2023 to 22 5% in 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - Muyuan Foods' slaughter volume reached 21 46 million heads in Q4 2024, a 27 7% year-on-year increase [7] - The company's complete breeding cost decreased to 13 1-13 3 RMB/kg in Q4 2024, maintaining industry leadership [7] - Muyuan Foods aims to reduce the complete breeding cost to 12 RMB/kg in 2025 [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 19 58x in 2022 to 7 61x in 2026 [2] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 22 09x in 2023 to 4 08x in 2026 [2] - The target price of 49 34 RMB is based on a 15x PE multiple for 2025 [7]