First(SH:603806) Goldman Sachs·2025-01-09 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" as it is expected to expand its market share and benefit from the premium pricing of N-type photovoltaic films, leading to improved profit margins [6]. Core Views - The company is projected to see a 10%-20% year-on-year increase in photovoltaic film shipments, with an estimated shipment of approximately 700 million square meters in Q4 2024, contributing to a total of 2.8 billion square meters for the year [2][3]. - The exit of industry capacity is expected to accelerate after Q4 2024, continuing into 2025, which may enhance the company's market share from 50%-60% in 2024 [2]. - POE resin prices are anticipated to stabilize in 2025 due to changes in pricing strategies and limited profit margins for domestic manufacturers [3]. - The company is expanding its overseas photovoltaic film production capacity, with plans to increase capacity in Thailand and Vietnam, potentially raising the overseas production share from 10% to 20% [4]. - Electronic film materials are expected to maintain rapid shipment growth and improved profit margins, driven by higher demand from AI servers and smart automotive applications [4]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Film Shipments - The company expects a 10%-20% increase in photovoltaic film shipments in 2025, driven by a 10%-15% growth in photovoltaic demand and accelerated capacity exit [2]. Industry Capacity Exit - The exit of industry capacity is expected to accelerate post-Q4 2024, with evidence from competitors shutting down production and the company's stable accounts receivable [2]. POE Resin Pricing - POE resin prices are projected to stabilize in 2025, influenced by changes in pricing strategies and the production cost alignment between POE and EVA resins [3]. Overseas Production Capacity - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with plans for 250 million square meters in Vietnam and Thailand, increasing the overseas share of total capacity [4]. Electronic Film Materials - The company anticipates continued rapid growth in electronic film shipments, with a projected 30% year-on-year increase, supported by demand from AI and automotive sectors [4].