新集能源：业绩符合预期，煤电一体成长可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 12.791 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.42% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.371 billion yuan, an increase of 12.39% year-on-year [7] - The coal business is expected to see both volume and price increases, with a significant improvement in cost control [7] - The power generation segment is benefiting from the commercial operation of the second phase of the Banji Power Plant, leading to substantial increases in electricity sales [7] - The company's long-term development plan aims to establish a "coal-coal power-new energy" industrial structure by 2025, with significant growth potential in the power business [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute declines of -15.73%, -18.67%, and -22.86% over the last 1, 2, and 3 months respectively [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects to achieve a total revenue of 12.791 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.371 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.39% [7] - The company’s coal production is projected to be 21.522 million tons in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.57% year-on-year [7] - The average selling price of coal is expected to be 567.4 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.91% year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.791 billion yuan, 13.580 billion yuan, and 15.185 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 2.371 billion yuan, 2.657 billion yuan, and 2.873 billion yuan [8][11] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in net profit of approximately 12.4% from 2024 to 2026 [11] Operational Highlights - The company’s coal sales volume is expected to be 18.872 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 4.14% year-on-year [7] - The power generation volume is projected to reach 12.972 billion kWh in 2024, an increase of 23.79% year-on-year [7] - The company plans to enhance the synergy between coal and power generation, with a target of achieving 100% self-sufficiency in coal supply for its new power projects by 2027 [7]