Chongqing Water(601158) 华金证券·2025-01-09 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is AAA/AAA as per the report [5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company is the largest integrated water supply and drainage enterprise in Chongqing, holding a monopoly position in the local market [10][12]. - The company has a bond issuance scale of 1.9 billion yuan with a maturity of 6 years and a conversion price set at 4.98 yuan, which is considered a high level of compensation interest at 6% [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company's stock price has decreased by 3.06% year-to-date as of January 7, 2025, outperforming the industry index which declined by 5.06% [37]. Summary by Sections 1. Convertible Bond Analysis - The convertible bond has a total issuance size of 1.9 billion yuan and a conversion price of 4.98 yuan, with a maturity of 6 years [5][6]. - The pure bond value is calculated at 99.89 yuan, corresponding to a yield to maturity (YTM) of 1.85%, indicating sufficient debt protection [5][6]. 2. Subscription Rate Analysis - The expected subscription rate is estimated at 0.0054% based on the assumption of 800 million households participating with a maximum subscription amount of 1 million yuan per household [8]. 3. Company Overview - The company is primarily engaged in sewage treatment and water supply services, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from these services [10][12]. - The company has been granted exclusive operating rights for water supply and sewage treatment in Chongqing, ensuring a stable revenue stream [10][12]. 4. Industry Analysis - The water industry is crucial for urban infrastructure and public utilities, with increasing demand driven by urbanization and environmental protection awareness [18][19]. - The report notes a steady growth in urban water supply and sewage treatment projects, with significant market opportunities arising from government policies aimed at improving infrastructure [21][22]. 5. Financial Analysis - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.123 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.65%, and a net profit of 729 million yuan, down 49.49% [28][35]. - The company's asset-liability ratio has been on the rise but remains at a relatively low level, indicating manageable financial health [29][35]. 6. Valuation Performance - As of January 7, 2025, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 60.96, which is higher than the average of comparable companies, indicating a general valuation pressure [36][39]. - The report anticipates a conversion premium of approximately 40% on the first day of trading for the convertible bond, with an expected price range of 128.46 to 141.98 yuan [42].