Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Xtep International (01368 HK) [1][6] Core Views - Xtep's main brand achieved high single-digit retail sales growth in Q4 and full year 2024, with online sales growing over 20% and offline sales growing low single-digit [2][3] - Saucony brand achieved over 60% growth in 2024, exceeding management guidance [2][3] - KP brand's divestiture is expected to enhance Xtep Group's profitability, with 2024 net profit target highly achievable [6] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast is adjusted to 1 25/14 0/15 6 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 20 9%/12 5%/10 9% [6] Operational Performance - Xtep main brand's Q4 retail discount improved to 7-7 5折 compared to 7折 in the same period last year [3] - Year-end inventory-to-sales ratio improved to 4 months, down from 4-4 5 months in the same period last year [3] - Saucony achieved approximately 50% growth in Q4 2024 [3] - January trends show positive momentum with main brand achieving double-digit growth, partly driven by earlier Chinese New Year [3] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 13 738/14 902/16 196 billion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit margin forecast: 9 1%/9 4%/9 6% [7] - 2024-2026 ROE forecast: 13 1%/13 8%/14 2% [7] - 2024-2026 PE ratio forecast: 11 3x/10 0x/9 0x [7] Valuation - Maintains reasonable valuation range of 6 1-6 6 HKD, corresponding to 11-12x 2025 PE [6] - Comparable company valuation shows Xtep trading at lower PE multiples than Anta and Li Ning [8] Strategic Focus - Company focuses on running category expertise, with main brand targeting mass market and Saucony targeting "dual elite" segment [6] - KP brand's divestiture expected to improve profitability, as it incurred annual operating losses of around 180 million yuan in 2022-2023 [6]
特步国际：2024年主品牌流水增长高单位数，索康尼增长超60%