ANTA SPORTS(02020) 海通国际·2025-01-10 00:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price of HKD 104.11 per share based on a 2024 PE valuation of 20X [9] Core Views - Anta Sports is positioned as a leading multi-brand sports group with competitive advantages in scarce quality multi-brand assets and a strong operational system [9] - The company's 24Q4 performance showed strong growth, with the main brand and FILA achieving high single-digit YoY growth, while other brands grew by 50-55% YoY [2][6] - Anta Sports is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 13.55 billion and RMB 13.7 billion in 2024 and 2025, respectively [9] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 83.92 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.0%-10.7% [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 10.24 billion in 2023 to RMB 14.70 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 1.1%-32.4% [2] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at 62.7% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Brand Performance - Main brand turnover grew by high single digits YoY in 24Q4, accelerating from Q1-Q3, driven by new store formats [2][6] - FILA's turnover grew by high single digits YoY in 24Q4, showing significant improvement from previous quarters [2][6] - Other brands grew by 50-55% YoY in 24Q4, continuing the acceleration trend since Q1 [2][6] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Sports optimized store layouts and enriched its product matrix, launching the PG7 running shoe priced at RMB 399, which offers strong value for money [7] - The company opened over 300 new stores during National Day, including Olympic-themed stores and specialized formats [7] - FILA upgraded its store image and introduced new store types, such as the "Shoe Creation Space" and "Hall of Kings" [7] Financial Management - Anta Sports redeemed EUR 1 billion in convertible bonds and issued EUR 1.5 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds, ensuring sufficient cash flow [8] - The company announced a HKD 10 billion share buyback plan, repurchasing 18.406 million shares at an average price of HKD 77.43, using HKD 1.43 billion [8] Industry Comparison - Anta Sports' PE ratio is projected to be 15.71X in 2024, lower than competitors like Nike (26.3X) and Lululemon (26.2X) [3] - The company's revenue growth is expected to outpace competitors, with a 10.0% YoY increase in 2024, compared to Nike's 7.4% and Adidas's 7.4% [3]