Sunner(002299) Huafu Securities·2025-01-10 01:43Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company has over 40 years of experience in the white feather broiler industry, establishing a comprehensive supply chain that includes breeding, feed processing, and food processing, thereby reinforcing its competitive moat [1][20]. - The company has successfully broken the international monopoly in breeding, launching its proprietary breed "Shenze 901," which has shown superior performance metrics compared to imported breeds [2][54]. - The company is expected to benefit from a prolonged upcycle in the upstream supply chain due to restrictions on breeding imports and increasing domestic consumption of chicken products [2][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has developed a large-scale integrated operation model, focusing on breeding, slaughtering, and processing, with a current breeding capacity exceeding 700 million birds and food processing capacity exceeding 500,000 tons [1][20]. - The company has seen steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 18.487 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 9.93% year-on-year increase [26]. 2. Upstream Supply Chain Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decline in the supply of grandparent stock due to overseas avian influenza outbreaks, leading to a structural gap in the supply of parent stock [2][34]. - The average price of parent stock has risen significantly, with prices reaching 58.21 yuan per set in November 2024, up from 30.95 yuan in January 2024 [40]. 3. Business Development - The breeding segment has seen the introduction of the "Shenze 901" breed, which has been well-received in both domestic and international markets, including exports to Africa [54][62]. - The food processing segment has grown rapidly, with revenue from meat products increasing from 21.67 billion yuan in 2017 to 56.51 billion yuan in 2023, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.32% [28][31]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 188.89 billion yuan, 208.63 billion yuan, and 232.94 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 5.58 billion yuan, 10.14 billion yuan, and 11.75 billion yuan [3][4].