King's Luck(603369) 德邦证券·2025-01-10 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][62]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as one of the leading players in the Jiangsu liquor market, benefiting from a rich historical background and a diverse product matrix that spans various price segments [4][9][15]. - The Jiangsu liquor market is projected to reach approximately 625 billion yuan in 2023, with a strong demand for medium-strength liquor, indicating significant growth potential for the company [27][28]. - The company is strategically focusing on expanding its market presence both within Jiangsu and nationally, utilizing a "3+4" strategy to penetrate surrounding markets effectively [49][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has a deep-rooted history in liquor production, originating from the Han Dynasty, and has evolved through various mergers and acquisitions [9][12]. - The local government holds a significant stake in the company, aligning employee interests with corporate performance [12]. 2. Product and Channel Strategy - The product portfolio is extensive, covering all price ranges and catering to various consumer scenarios, with a focus on high-end and medium-strength liquor [15][22]. - The company is enhancing its distribution channels through a grid-like, flat, and refined approach, which has led to a substantial increase in the number of distributors and sales personnel [18][19]. 3. Market Potential - The Jiangsu market still has room for growth, particularly in the Suzhong and Sunan regions, which are expected to drive future sales [45]. - The company is also implementing a national expansion strategy, focusing on key provinces and cities to build a consumer base before expanding further [49][52]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 11.87 billion, 13.40 billion, and 15.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.6%, 12.8%, and 12.5% respectively [4][62]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 3.63 billion, 4.01 billion, and 4.67 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 15.7%, 10.4%, and 16.6% [4][62].