赣锋锂业：与马里政府加强合作，锂资源步入收获期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [6][22]. Core Views - The company is strengthening its collaboration with the Malian government, which is expected to facilitate the smooth production of the Goulamina lithium project. This project is a significant lithium resource for the company in Africa, characterized by high ore grades and competitive production costs [3][4]. - The company is entering a harvest period for lithium resources as various projects are coming online, including the Goulamina lithium project, which is set to commence production in December 2024. The Cauchari-Olaroz project in Argentina is projected to produce approximately 20,000 to 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024 [5]. - The company has faced revenue pressure in the first three quarters of 2024, with a reported revenue of 13.925 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 640 million yuan, down 110.66% year-on-year [5]. Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - The company has signed a share transfer agreement with the Malian government, transferring 35% of LMSA's shares, which is expected to enhance cooperation and support the development of the Goulamina project [3]. - A tripartite agreement was signed for financing the Safo solar power and energy storage project, with the company committing up to $50 million for construction, which will further deepen its strategic partnership with the Malian government [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to have a revenue CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2026, with expected revenues of 17.5 billion, 18.1 billion, and 21.6 billion yuan respectively. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be a loss of 350 million yuan, with a recovery to 460 million yuan in 2025 and 1.23 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. - The report indicates that the company’s resource advantages position it well to benefit from a potential recovery in lithium prices, which is anticipated to improve in 2025 due to supply-demand dynamics [6].