XINGYE SILVER&TIN(000426) 华福证券·2025-01-14 01:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][19]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 3.296 billion yuan, up 35.96% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.3 billion yuan, up 139.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights that the company's production capacity is steadily increasing, with ongoing resource reserve enhancements and optimistic price trends for silver and tin products, supporting a positive growth outlook [5][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.098 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.42% quarter-on-quarter and 6.83% year-on-year, with a net profit of 416 million yuan, down 36.33% quarter-on-quarter but up 1.47% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average selling prices for key products in Q3 were relatively stable, with silver futures averaging 7,525 yuan/kg (down 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, up 30.8% year-on-year), tin at 260,000 yuan/ton (down 1.1%, up 16.4%), zinc at 24,000 yuan/ton (up 0.3%, up 13.2%), and lead at 18,000 yuan/ton (down 0.4%, up 10.9%) [3]. Capacity Expansion and Resource Reserves - The company is advancing its capacity expansion projects, including the approval of a 2-year construction plan for the second phase of the Yinman project, which will increase production capacity by 2.97 million tons [4]. - The planned acquisition of an 85% stake in Yubang Mining is expected to enhance silver production capacity, with an estimated annual output of 53 tons [4]. - Exploration activities are ongoing, with significant investments in drilling and resource assessment to bolster reserves [4]. Profitability Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward to 1.703 billion yuan, 2.255 billion yuan, and 2.597 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a more conservative outlook on production capacity release [5]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profitability, supported by increasing resource reserves and favorable market conditions for key metals [5].