HPGC(SH:600664) Xinda Securities·2025-01-14 01:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 544 million to 653 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% to 65%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 518 million to 621 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 59% to 91% [2][4] - The report highlights that the company's performance in 2024 is driven by marketing reforms and product restructuring, which are expected to continue to support growth in 2025 [2][4] - The company has made significant adjustments to its sales organization and is transitioning from a heavy distribution model to a focus on terminal promotion, which is anticipated to enhance gross margins [4] Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 16.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 604 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 52.9% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.2% in 2023 to 29.3% in 2024, with a continued upward trend projected through 2026 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.24 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.35 yuan by 2026 [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on increasing sales of second and third-tier products in 2025, with anticipated growth driven by enhanced marketing investments and sales assessments [4] - The report anticipates an improvement in the net profit margin for high-end health products (GNC) in 2025, with expectations of a rise from approximately 1% in 2023 [4] - The overall operational improvement of the main factory is expected to continue, supported by increased sales investments and product line expansion [4]