HISENSE H.A.(000921) 高盛·2025-01-14 01:33Investment Rating - The report rates Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ) as "Buy" due to predictable profit growth supported by the 2024 employee incentive plan, attractive dividend yield, and low valuation with an average price corresponding to 12 times the expected earnings for 2025, while profit growth exceeds 10% [6][8]. Core Insights - Management expects revenue growth in Q4 2024 and throughout 2025 to be in the mid-to-high single digits, with profits reaching the targets set in the incentive plan [1][4]. - The central air conditioning business remains a focal point for investors, with expectations of sequential improvement in Q4 2024, primarily driven by the 2C and 2B channels, while the engineering channel remains weak [1][4]. - The recently announced "trade-in" policy is anticipated to boost sales of central air conditioning units, as consumers can receive subsidies for up to three units this year compared to one last year [1]. - The white goods sector is benefiting from the trade-in stimulus measures, with a sequential improvement in the domestic market in Q4, and strong growth in overseas markets, particularly in emerging markets [1][4]. - Management anticipates stable profit margins for central air conditioning, with efficiency improvements offsetting the drag from channel and brand structure [1][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Expectations - For Q4 2024, management expects revenue growth to be in the mid-to-high single digits, with profit growth helping to achieve the annual growth targets set in the incentive plan [4]. - Domestic market growth for white goods has significantly improved compared to Q3, with October showing approximately 20% month-on-month growth for refrigerators and washing machines, while November and December saw single-digit growth [4]. Central Air Conditioning Business - The engineering channel in the domestic market faces significant growth pressure, while the 2C and 2B channels are showing signs of recovery [4][5]. - For 2025, management expects domestic sales to remain flat, while overseas markets are projected to continue strong growth, driven by expansion into non-European and non-VRF markets [4][5]. Traditional White Goods Business - Despite adjustments in Q3 2024 shipment volumes, management remains optimistic about market share growth driven by product improvements and channel expansion [5]. - Management expects profit margins for traditional white goods to improve due to product structure enhancements and efficiency gains [5].