WENS FOODSTUFF GROUP CO.(300498) 国信证券·2025-01-14 01:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9 billion to 9.5 billion yuan in 2024, marking a turnaround from a loss of 6.39 billion yuan in the same period last year [2][3] - The company has sufficient pig breeding capacity, with 1.68 million breeding sows as of the end of October, and is continuously improving production indicators and performance [3][5] - The company’s cost of pig and chicken farming is steadily decreasing, benefiting from an upward cycle in pig prices [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 25.92 to 30.92 billion yuan for Q4 2024, indicating a significant improvement compared to the previous year [4] - The average profit per fat pig is estimated to be around 330 to 350 yuan, with total breeding costs at approximately 14.0 yuan/kg [3][4] Production Capacity and Management - The company has completed a breeding capacity of approximately 46 million heads, with a current breeding sow count of 1.68 million [5] - The company’s production management and disease prevention measures have shown significant improvement, leading to better core production indicators [5] Market Position - The company sold 1.208 billion meat chickens in 2024, a 2% increase year-on-year, maintaining the top market share among listed peers [6] - The cost of chicken farming has also been decreasing, with the total cost per chicken reaching around 5.7 yuan per pound [6] Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are adjusted to 9.17 billion, 11.395 billion, and 9.986 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on pig prices for 2025 and 2026 [7][10]