ANTA SPORTS(02020) 开源证券·2025-01-14 03:13Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Views - Q4 saw a sequential acceleration in sales across all brands, with FILA performing better than expected [1] - ANTA brand's e-commerce performance was strong, and FILA exceeded expectations [6] - The company maintains a single-focus, multi-brand, and global strategy, with ANTA strengthening product power and innovating channels, while FILA continues high-quality growth by enhancing vertical competitiveness and optimizing channels [6] - Other brands are expected to continue high growth by penetrating new markets [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 70,100 million RMB, with a YoY growth of 12.4% [10] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be 13,588 million RMB, with a YoY growth of 32.7% [10] - Gross margin for 2024E is forecasted at 63.0%, with a net margin of 19.4% [10] - ROE for 2024E is estimated at 24.3%, with an EPS of 4.8 RMB [10] - P/E ratio for 2024E is 15.0x, and P/B ratio is 3.6x [10] ANTA Brand Performance - Q4 sales for ANTA brand grew at a high single-digit rate, with adult/children offline sales growing at high single-digit/low double-digit rates, and e-commerce sales growing by approximately 20% [6] - Full-year sales growth was high single-digit, with children's sales exceeding 10 billion RMB [6] - Inventory-to-sales ratio was around 5, with offline discounts stable and online discounts improving [6] - Channel innovations, such as ANTA Champion and ANTA Shoe Collection, are expected to drive continued growth [6] FILA Brand Performance - Q4 sales for FILA were slightly negative, but full-year sales grew at a mid-single-digit rate [7] - Mainline sales grew at a high single-digit rate, while children's and trendy lines adjusted effectively, with children's sales growing at a mid-single-digit rate and trendy lines growing at a high double-digit rate [7] - Inventory-to-sales ratio remained around 5, with discounts in good condition [7] Other Brands Performance - Q4 sales for other brands grew by 50-55%, with DESCENTE growing over 40% and KOLON growing 60-65% [8] - Full-year sales growth for other brands was 40-45%, with expectations of further growth driven by the Asian Winter Olympics in February 2025 [8] Related Research Reports - Previous reports highlighted FILA's Q3 sales fluctuations, ANTA's H1 core profit exceeding expectations, and Q2 retail performance meeting expectations despite market volatility [5]